Monday, March 8, 2010

In which I proudly demonstrate a remedial understanding of supply, demand, and economic growth


An asteroid may have spelled doom for dinosaurs. But what do asteroids spell for humans?

In "Space: The Final Frontier of Profit," Peter Diamandis of the X Prize Foundation writes that the cosmos provide endless lucrative opportunities of enterprising individuals. In particular, he appraised "an average half-kilometer S-type asteroid" at $20 trillion. But that's not all. He writes:

...companies and investors are realizing that everything we hold of value—metals, minerals, energy and real estate—are in near-infinite quantities in space. As space transportation and operations become more affordable, what was once seen as a wasteland will become the next gold rush.


I find Diamandis's assertion that "everything we hold of value" can be found in the heavens to be overly cavalier -- as a case in point, (almost) none of us are up there right now -- but certainly "metals, minerals, energy and real estate" are abundant in space.

So what does this mean for us? Is space a money tree? If space becomes our industrial playground, how will this effect our perception of the world? Consumer goods? Productive goods? How will it alter our views of what's important?

Without a doubt, the practical opening of the space market would flood the supply of goods such as platinum and iron. Unlike Spain in the New World, countries that laid claim to a medium-sized asteroid would not suffer from atrophy in other growing industries (like how Spain failed to grow its manufacturing capabilities in the colonial era); rather, space explorers would be advancing the new and profitable technologies of the future. Dutch disease would not be a concern.

Overall, the effect of harvesting space would be to lower the prices of most goods. At first, the depression of prices would seem infinite, corresponding with buyers' expectations of infinite growth and resources. Space's bounty would shine down on humans with the gratuitous generosity of Bastiat's sun in "The Candlemaker's Petition." It is likely that humankind would bask in its light and prosper. By this, I mean that we'd reap the benefits of a higher standard of living and, in general, more time to play guitar.

So maybe space does "hold everything we value."

Some other cool questions to ponder: If we began to colonize other worlds, or even just asteroids, how would we go about exporting our lives and our ecosystems? What role would Earth's biosphere play in the transformation of the solar system? How does global warming's threat to the biosphere affect our future in space? And is space -- an almost infinite resource -- the unique, inevitable path to prosperity? Would it "solve the economic problem"?

1 comment:

  1. Wouldn't it be ironic if we exported our ecosystems to other planets? After all we've learned through acclimatization societies and other destruction of native life, one would think we had transcended historical ignorance. But, I suppose, what value do limitless resources have on another planet if it's not "home"?

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